weight_state_space_training_decay_aerobic_symmetric_student_ar_spline_constrained.stan | Key feature: AR coefficient ρ constrained to [-0.5, 0.5] to prevent overfitting. Detailed component predictions in component_predictions/ directory.
Component Predictions: Output from the constrained AR(1) spline model. Includes hourly predictions, component breakdown by activity type, and daily patterns in weight variation.
View Component Predictions →Constrained AR(1) Spline Model: Comprehensive interpretability report with model overview, prior specification, posterior parameter tables, MCMC diagnostics, dynamic variance decomposition, and key interpretation of fitness effects on weight.
View Interpretability Report →Trend Model Variant: Adds an explicit linear trend parameter (δ) to test whether weight changes show a secular trend independent of fitness effects. Compares posterior estimates to the base constrained AR(1) model.
View Trend Report →Mathematical and computational documentation of the four-fitness state-space model (previous model architecture). Includes equations, Stan implementation, and parameter sensitivity analysis.
View Technical Documentation →Project-specific instructions for AI assistants, including tooling requirements, project structure, and development methodologies.
View HTMLAnalysis of Garmin workout data quality, aggregation methods, and recommendations for modeling. Focuses on strength training data for cross-lagged time-series analysis.
View HTMLCentral hub for enhanced sensitivity model reports. (Previous Model Variant)
View Suite →Previous model analysis with detailed parameter estimates, variance decomposition, and diagnostics.
View Report →Visualizations from previous model variant including time series and parameter distributions.
View Visualizations →Fitness state time series from enhanced sensitivity model with conservative sampling.
View Time Series →Technical overview from previous enhanced sensitivity model variant.
View Overview →Summary of model consolidation and cleanup process documentation.
View Summary